[antennae Weekly] ChatGPT is becoming popular at the phenomenal level, which industries are panicking? Let's see what the experts say!

It's another week off.

Let's take a look at ChatGPT~, which has recently become a hot topic on the Internet.


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The influence of ChatGPT Development


oneLeading the development of AI industry in China


The introduction of ChatGPT has played a strong demonstration effect on the development of AI technology and industry in China, which indicates the rapid development of international cutting-edge AI technology, and the commercial picture of AI is becoming more and more clear. At present, China is in the global leading level in the field of natural language understanding and related AI technology, and a large domestic AI manufacturer.Baidu, Tencent YouTu Lab, Alibaba, Kuaishou, Byte Jump, NetEase, ShangTang, Meitu, iFLYTEK and so on are all increasing investment in the field of AIGC.

2、ChatGPT is expected to help AIGC break the circle.

With the popularity of ChatGPT, people's awareness of AI has risen to a new height, causing the whole market to re-evaluate AIGC track expectations. The understanding of natural language is a key link in the development of AIGC. ChatGPT is actually an interactive chat based on natural language, and the user cost is very low. At the same time, ChatGPT introduces a new training method, RLHF, which strengthens human feedback under big data's pre-training, which greatly improves the scope, effectiveness and accuracy of the generated content.

As an important application of AIGC, the emergence of ChatGPT is of great significance for the AIGC application of text / speech mode. With the continuous improvement of the deep learning model, the promotion of the open source model, and the possibility of commercialization of the large model, AIGC is expected to accelerate its development and become a new engine for the intelligent development of multiple industries.

3、 AIGC is expected to inject momentum into the development of digital economy.

In terms of application value, AIGC is expected to become a new engine for the innovation and development of digital content and inject new momentum into the development of digital economy.

On the one hand, because of human manufacturing capacity and knowledge level, AIGC can undertake basic mechanical work such as information mining, material transfer, copy editing, and so on. From the technical level, it can meet the massive personalized needs in a low marginal cost and efficient way. At the same time, it can innovate the process and paradigm of content production, provide the possibility for more imaginative content and more diversified modes of communication, and promote the development of content production to a more creative direction.

On the other hand, AIGC can support the multi-dimensional interaction and integration of digital content with other industries so as to give birth to a new model of new business type, create a new growth point of economic development, and provide new momentum for the development of all industries. In addition, since 2021, "meta-universe" has shown explosive power beyond imagination; as the "ultimate" digital carrier of the integration of data and reality, meta-universe will have the characteristics of persistence, practicality and scientific modeling, and will also accelerate the reproduction of the physical world and unlimited content creation through AIGC, so as to achieve spontaneous and organic growth.



Expert evaluation


With the spread of ChatGPT craze, related concept stocks continue to heat up, and spread to pan-AI and digital economy plates.At present, it remains to be seen whether AI enterprises will find a commercial model in this round of AI upsurge.



Bank of China International


Bank of China International published a research report that ChatGPT registered users have increased rapidly, AIGC has great potential, and it will not underestimate the potential subversion brought by ChatGPT in the long run, but its huge investment cost has not been justified in terms of current user experience, application scenarios, barriers to entry and commercialization potential. The bank believes that large platform companies with data and capital advantages are expected to benefit more than AI software companies.



BaiduFounder Li Yanhong


A new round of "arms race" for Internet companies and technology companies on ChatGPTBaiduFounder Robin Li said today that both AIGC and ChatGPT are new opportunities for AI to develop to a certain stage. "how to turn such cool technology into a good product that everyone needs, this step is actually the most difficult, the greatest, and the most influential."



OpenAI CEOSam·Armante.


OpenAI CEO Sam Altman predicted that AI large model technology will become the largest technology platform in the future after the mobile Internet, while the development of chat robots as the interface, coupled with the development of image, music, text and other multimodal models, will give birth to large enterprises.



The founder of Yuncong Technology


Zhou Xi, founder and chairman of Yuncong Technology, believes that ChatGPT is a continuation of the big data model. While capturing big data, it introduces human knowledge, that is, human feedback reinforcement learning, and organically combines the data school with the knowledge school, which greatly improves the performance of the model.



Shenyang, School of Journalism, Tsinghua University


Shenyang, director of the meta-cosmic culture laboratory of the School of Journalism at Tsinghua University, evaluates that ChatGPT is already close to ordinary undergraduates. "if you compare the level of artificial intelligence with human intelligence and divide it into anthropomorphic, homo-human and superhuman levels, then ChatGPT is equivalent to the same human level, and in many areas the level is close to that of ordinary undergraduates." "at present, AI is in the transition stage from weak artificial intelligence to strong artificial intelligence, and it is expected that in 5 to 10 years, ChatGPT will reach the master's level in many fields," he told reporters.



Bill, co-founder of Microsoft·Gates


Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates believes that ChatGPT is a chat robot that can respond to user queries in a surprisingly human-like manner, as important as the invention of the Internet. "so far, artificial intelligence can read and write, but cannot understand the content. New programs like ChatGPT will improve the efficiency of many offices by helping to write invoices or emails. It will change our world, "he said in a comment."



Microsoft CEO Satya·Nadella


Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella (Satya Nadella) says the technology will reshape almost all software and even the entire Internet. The integration of ChatGPT technology into browser search is also described by Nadella as "this is a new day in the search field." Nadella believes that the paradigm of web search has not changed for decades, but AI can convey information more smoothly and faster than traditional methods. "the AI search competition starts today and we will act quickly," he said. Most importantly, we want to have the fun of innovation in search again, because now is the time. " Nadella also said that AI search is the biggest event since the advent of cloud computing technology 15 years ago and in his nine years at the helm of Microsoft.



Musk, founder of OpenAI


As one of the founders of OpenAI, Musk has been concerned about the research and development of artificial intelligence. In early December, Musk said, "ChatGPT is frighteningly good, and we are not far from dangerously powerful artificial intelligence." he also emphasized the capabilities of ChatGPT from an outsider's point of view.



Take-Two Interactive CEO Strauss Zelnik


Strauss Zelnik (Strauss Zelnick), CEO of Take-Two Interactive, said on the earnings call that he was "very excited about the ChatGPT we are seeing now and other leaps in artificial intelligence and machine learning". But in Zelnik's view, the technology will not revolutionize the video game industry. He points out that this may not even help improve the "cost structure" of the game business, because "any time you make things easier, we want to do more, and our team wants to do more."



Zhou Hongyi, founder of 360


Zhou Hongyi talked about ChatGPT for the first time when talking to Zhang Chaoyang, founder of Sohu. He said that search engine companies are most likely to participate in research-like ChatGPT products, and 360 will certainly not give up on the research and tracking of this technology. From GPT1, GPT2 to GPT3360, there are a large number of experts studying and tracking this technology, and we have accumulated the technology. " He said bluntly that if the enterprise does not take the ChatGPT bus, it is likely to be eliminated.




JPMorgan Chase


JPMorgan analysts believe that generative artificial intelligence could become a burden on traditional services in the short term because it will compete with traditional services on pricing, forcing traditional services to retrain employees and making traditional services less competitive. "ChatGPT is likely to be the biggest drag on traditional services and the least drag on application services," JPMorgan said. "


Paul Buchheit, the 23rd employee of Google


Paul Buchheit, Google's 23rd employee and one of the founders of Gmail, said that artificial intelligence chatbots like ChatGPT will destroy Google, just as search engines wiped out the yellow pages phone book.



Nie Zaiqing, a powerful professor at Tsinghua University


Nie Zaiqing believes that it is particularly necessary for us to build a big language model like ChatGPT, and China needs to have such products of its own. Not only can ChatGPT chat and help write, but it is also the basic model (foundation model) for many downstream artificial intelligence tasks.



Cao Lihong, Communication University Of China


Cao Lihong, director and doctoral supervisor of Communication University Of China Institute of brain Science and Intelligent Media, is likely to be fluent in knowledge and thinking with scientific depth, but it is often "very serious nonsense".



Liu Qingfeng, Chairman of iFLYTEK


Liu Qingfeng, chairman of iFLYTEK, pointed out when talking about ChatGPT at the online exchange meeting that the emergence of ChatGPT has realized the so-called "wisdom emergence", but it is not out of nowhere. From the pre-training model in 2018 to the big model craze of GPT 3 of OpenAI in 2020, there is a lot of technical research work going on before the emergence of ChatGPT technology.



Yang Likun, chief artificial intelligence scientist of Meta


Yann LeCun, Turing Award winner and Meta's chief artificial intelligence scientist, said, "as far as the underlying technology is concerned, ChatGPT is not particularly innovative or revolutionary." Many research laboratories are using the same technology and doing the same work. " He believes that ChatGPT is not so much a scientific breakthrough as a decent engineering example.



A profession that is easily replaced by artificial intelligence


In the face of ChatGPT, the business giants are anxious, and ordinary people are also worried. Many people worry about whether ChatGPT's powerful capabilities will replace some professions, such as customer service, programmers, journalists and so on.



Customer service staff


Almost everyone has had the experience of calling or chatting with a company's customer service and being answered by a robot. ChatGPT and related technologies may continue this trend. A 2022 study by technology research firm Gartner predicted that chatbots will become the main customer service channel for about 25 per cent of companies by 2027.



Warehouse worker


Palletizing robots such as XYZ have begun to replace manpower for sorting. Unmanned forks such as Jixiang Lingyue and Yimu Technology can accurately transport goods shelves to designated locations in warehouses, and these products have been introduced into the internal warehouses of many of the world's top 500 enterprises. With the development of computer vision and robot control technology, AI will soon be able to carry boxes, load boxes and other warehouse work. The trend of warehouse logistics automation is becoming more and more irresistible. compared with factories, warehouse automation requires lower precision, so it is easier to achieve.



Cashiers and operators


One of the world's top 500 banks has announced that it will cut the number of online store operators from 20,000 to 10,000. These are unnamed middlemen who deal with data and information. Their responsibilities include filing, processing, purchasing, inventory management, error survey, sales estimation, reporting findings to management, and so on. With the electronic business process, the business intelligence system can automate the whole process, and AI can even make decisions directly. This phenomenon will occur not only in the banking industry, but also in every big company that deals with huge amounts of data. In the age of AI, no one wants to be a data processor of thousands of people.



Graphic designer


Some experts have pointed out that the image generator DALL-E created by OpenAI can generate images in a few seconds and is a "potential subverter" in the graphic design industry. Improving the ability of millions of people to create and process images will have a profound impact on the economy. For some people whose jobs are directly affected or difficult to adapt, the latest developments in the field of artificial intelligence will certainly bring a difficult and economic painful period.



Financial analysis


Mark Muro says financial analysts, personal financial advisers and other jobs that need to deal with large amounts of digital data will be affected by artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence can identify market trends, emphasize which investments in the portfolio perform better and which perform worse, and communicate, and then use various forms of data such as financial companies to predict better portfolios. Muro believes that such analysts make a lot of money, but some of their work can be automated.



News media category


Anu Madgavkar said that all media work-including advertising, technical writing, news and any character involved in content creation-could be affected by ChatGPT and similar forms of artificial intelligence. This is because artificial intelligence is good at reading, writing and understanding text-based data, she added. Analyzing and interpreting large amounts of language-based data and information is a skill that can be expected to improve in generative artificial intelligence, Madgavkar said. In fact, the media industry has begun to try to use artificial intelligence to generate content. Technology news site CNET has written dozens of articles using artificial intelligence tools, and digital media giant BuzzFeed has announced that it will use ChatGPT to generate more new content.



Software technology category


Artificial intelligence tools like ChatGPT and similar may be the first to replace coding and computer programming skills in the near future. Anu Madgavkar says technical jobs such as software developers, web developers, computer programmers, coders and data scientists "can easily be replaced by artificial intelligence" because artificial intelligence such as ChatGPT is good at handling numbers relatively accurately. Advanced technologies like ChatGPT can generate code faster than humans, which means that a job can be done with fewer employees in the future. Technology companies such as ChatGPT maker OpenAI are already considering replacing software engineers with artificial intelligence.



Legal work


Legal staff, such as paralegals and legal assistants, digest a lot of information, synthesize what they have learned, and then make the content easy to understand by writing legal summaries or opinions. Anu Madgavkar says that language-oriented characters like this are easy to automate. She added: the data is actually quite structured and very language-oriented, so it is very suitable for generative artificial intelligence. But she adds that artificial intelligence cannot fully automate these tasks because a degree of human judgment is still needed to understand the needs of customers or employers.



Market research analyst


Market research analysts collect data, identify and identify trends in the data, and then use their findings to design effective marketing campaigns or decide where to place advertisements. Mark Muro, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said artificial intelligence is good at analyzing data and predicting results, which makes market research analysts very vulnerable to artificial intelligence technology.




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